Why you may have seen fights break out at Costco and why this neglect of social distancing actually fairs worse for your health
A good amount of the later part of this blog was inspired by a thread on the importance of social distancing this week. Check it out here.
In the past 24 hours, I've received a number of suggestions for potential topics for today. However, upon receiving three separate messages:
"Why are people mass buying toilet paper?"
"Why are people selling out of toilet paper but not food?"
"TF is up with the toilet paper (panic - is overreacting more harmful or helpful?)"
...I realize that the people want toilet paper and they want toilet paper now.
To answer the question of "why" people are panic buying toilet paper, there are a number of explanations we can look at.
From an economic standpoint, the mass closure of facilities, certain services, etc. has left a lot of people scrambling to find another source of income. In the United States, there has been a lot of back and forth on the issue of paid sick leave packages. COVID-19 is exposing the fact that the very fabric that holds America together is made up of low-wage laborers who are not afforded the ability to take sick leave when needed. As of Friday evening, an agreement was reached with the White House on legislation that would allow some workers affected by COVID-19 to take up to 10 days of paid sick leave at partial public expense. A large number of low-wage workers who live paycheck to paycheck are currently in a very vulnerable position with no definitive end. Not that this applies to everyone, but mass buying high-demand items in the midst of this crisis and price gouging have become a way of obtaining income. Even Canadians (some of the most courteous people on the planet...I mean...am I not just the nicest person you know? Haha...jk...unless...) have been guilty of exploiting the scarcity of toilet paper, hand sanitizer, Lysol wipes, and a number of other crisis items.
The social system itself has failed the people and put many in a position of desperation. However, hoarding and price-gouging make the situation worse for everyone. If the vast majority of the population doesn't have the means to look after themselves and their hygiene, they cannot contribute to the greater collective effort of preventing disease.
From a hygiene perspective, this Time article suggests that the urge to stockpile toilet paper goes back to the fundamentals of humanity: we eat and sleep and poop. From our days of potty training to fully functioning adults, toilet paper has always been there. Hence, it is programmed in our system to actively seek out toilet paper as a product necessary to fulfill our fundamental needs. (Obviously, we've moved on from plucking leaves from the forest. Mankind has shown its strong preference for bulldozing natural habitats.)
If food is also essential to our survival, why toilet paper shortages and not food? If you've been to a Walmart in the past few days, you know that shelves that once displayed bread, cereals, grains, ramen, and other low-priced non-perishables are also barren. However, there has been a little more hysteria over hoarding toilet paper. For starters, food has a variety of substitutes. If you can't find the jar of Nutella you need, chances are there is something else you're willing to consume somewhere in the store. On the other hand, there is no substitute for toilet paper. Well, I suppose you could opt for baby wipes or saw a roll of paper towels in half, but it isn't quite the same. There is also a degree of psychological comfort that stems from seeing the barren space on your shelf occupied by several bulky rolls of toilet paper instead of a small avocado.
Digging deeper into some of the psychology behind panic buying, we should investigate the "zero risk bias". Over the past few weeks, people have been asked to put a very abrupt pause on their lives. Schools have closed, travel restrictions have pressured people to flee travel destinations to return home, employees are transitioning to working-from-home, and those who do not have that option may be left jobless. The world has been told to cancel plans and remain indoors indefinitely as there are several factors that elevate exposure risk.
Are you immunocompromised? Are you at risk of occupational exposure? Have you traveled to regions with high rates of infection? Are you stressed, thus straining your immune system? Have you been present at large public congregations such as the toilet paper sale version of Black Friday at the Walmart down the street?
This is where the zero risk bias comes in. With multiple factors that put us at risk, we are irrationally disposed to eliminate ONE category of risk as opposed to working on reducing EACH category of risk. You read that correctly. We would rather fix one problem and ignore the potential to resolve everything else. Eliminating one risk entirely seems like we are eliminating a greater proportion of our mental strain. We disregard the quantitative validity of the situation to focus on stepping back into our comfort zones. Therefore, we are biased toward the appealing but less effective option.
We have established that people would rather eliminate the risk of being "unclean" during potential quarantine by ensuring they have an excessively sufficient supply of toilet paper. This bias occurs at the expense of abiding by the recommended social distancing orders. But here is why keeping your distance is particularly important right now...
As we are all probably aware by now, SARS-CoV-19 can be carried by an asymptomatic individual for about 14 days. Recent reports state that the median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5 days and that symptoms are not present in over 97% of cases until 12 days after infection. In North America, we are at the very beginning of this incubation and transmission-risk period. Testing is particularly limited at the moment (I know the WHO has screwed up in the past but I don't know why the US didn't take the damn test kits!!!), and people aren't being tested unless they are appropriately symptomatic (see below) which means that as I blog there is currently the highest number of infected people who don't even know that they're infected walking around.
Even if you didn't travel to high-risk areas or knowingly come into contact with an infected individual, chances are that you contracted it from someone who wasn't coughing and feverish but was infected (ahem, Rudy Gobert). By the time people who were infectious but asymptomatic develop symptoms realize that they were infected in about a week, well, they would have already infected everyone who did not isolate themselves this week. Even without symptoms, people who unknowingly have COVID-19 are contagious the entire time between when they become infected until they develop a fever.
The CDC has advised that people cancel or postpone events with over 50 people for 8 weeks. Yes, this seems a bit extreme (and I am currently freaking out about the likelihood of not being able to walk in my college graduation ceremony in front of my family), but you don't have to lock yourself up for 8 weeks. Do the math. In about a week or two when everyone who was infected starts to present symptoms, then you definitively know who to avoid. And if you were good about keeping isolated during these critical 14 days, then you know it's fairly safe to slowly start to see people you know are not symptomatic and could not potentially be carrying the infection (because they too practiced social distancing).
As much as authorities can bar you from campus (ugh, I just wanted to ease my mind with PCR in my lab), gardens (rip Duke Garden senior grad photos), bars (I didn't want to celebrate my 22nd birthday anyway), if you linger in the boba shops it is OVER for us all! We must be accountable for our own health, and more importantly, the health of the vulnerable, if we want to have any shot at flattening the curve. Otherwise, before we know it, instead of toilet paper shortages, society will suffer a shortage of ventilators and ICU beds.
As the article referenced above states, we need to pressure officials to close ALL schools and public spaces and cancel public events for the time being. Sleepovers, hangouts, and parties need to be put on hold if there is any risk of potential infection. I know FOMO sucks, but please don't be that friend that flies back from Italy and shows up at the apartment of people who have tried to adhere to social distancing orders. Get some fresh air but keep your distance. Minimize the amount of time you spend in enclosed public spaces like stores and restaurants - make food at home but order take-out meals instead of eating-in if you can't cook (and tip well!). And if you are symptomatic, even if it is "just the cold and not COVID-19", please stay home.
Note that in especially small and densely populated areas, like college towns, the infection is able to spread rapidly across the entire population. Social distancing has a significant impact on mitigating disease transmission.
Click this link to see the source of the graphic below and other incredible illustrations of the COVID-19 situation.
So to answer the question about overreacting: underreacting poses catastrophic risks far greater than overreacting. Yes, measures are currently rather extreme, but the hope is that people abide by them so that we don't end up with an overburdened healthcare system and a tragically high number of completely preventable deaths. This does NOT mean you should hoard toilet paper - quite the opposite really. Instead, try to understand why you feel the panic about the things you cannot control and choose to focus on the things that you can control. As small as it seems, the choice to practice social distancing for even one day makes a huge impact.
Only if we follow through on our promises to protect the greater good of society, will we be able to see the peak and decline of this outbreak. As of this update from the past hour, the US currently has over 3000 cases of COVID-19. The New York Times predicts that the infections in the US could peak at 9.4 million without interventions. But if we abide by aggressive public health interventions starting TODAY, there is hope that the peak can fall to 3 million.
For the time being, take advantage of actually using social media to be social. I've sincerely enjoyed reconnecting with new and old friends over the past few days thanks to video chat. (There is really no point in trying to flex vacation photos featuring your envy-worthy abs. We all know that the airline industry is currently dead and nobody is really flying.)
In closing, I want to remind everyone to take this time to reflect on their own privileges. I know that feeling restricted and isolated is far from ideal, but consider everything that you have that others do not at this time. If you have the ability to stay home from school or work, consider how fortunate you are to not worry about where the next paycheck or meal is coming from. If you had to book an expensive flight back into the US, be thankful that you have the resources and legal protection to get you home. If you are upset about not being able to go out to restaurants and events freely, think about how lucky you are to have an immune system that is strong enough to enable you to even consider leaving your apartment.
Capitalism if fragile. The system is broken. Current leadership is failing and the fate of the world rests in the hands of civil society. Maybe this is a disaster. Or perhaps this is an opportunity for us to rise to the occasion in the small and simple ways that we can.
You care capable. What you do next? That's up to you.
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